Aakash Chopra reckons India have an arduous task ahead to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. Aakash Chopra opined that winning the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy will be a tough proposition for the visitors.
India suffered a 113-run defeat in the second Test against New Zealand in Pune on Saturday, October 26. They are 2-0 down in the three-match series and might have to win the final Test and the upcoming five-match series in Australia to book a berth in their third consecutive WTC final. India have been handed a massive blow to their World Test Championship final chances after a terrible show against New Zealand in the home Test series. India now narrowly lead the WTC points table with the rest of the teams rapidly catching up.
Team India’s position in WTC Championship table after 2nd test vs NZ
India have been handed a mega blow by New Zealand in the World Test Championship. Having led the WTC points table for the longest time in the 2023-25 cycle, India have faltered at the very end. The Rohit Sharma side has lost their first-ever Test series against New Zealand at home, which means that their WTC points percentage has taken a massive hit.
The Indian team, which had above 70 Points percentage (PCT) ahead of the New Zealand Test series, has been dropped down to 62.82, with only 6 Tests remaining in the WTC cycle. With the series defeat, India’s chances of reaching the final of the tournament next year have taken a massive hit. India now narrowly lead Australia – who have 62.50 PCT, with other teams rapidly catching up to them.
With their first Test series loss in 11 years, India have put themselves in a tight spot. Within 8 days, India’s PCT in the WTC cycle has dipped from 74 per cent to 62.82 per cent. Rohit Sharma’s team still clings on to the top spot, with a slender lead over second-placed Australia.
Having lost the first two matches against New Zealand, India cannot afford any more complacency. India still have their fortunes in their hands, but losing more Test matches will mean that India’s chances to reach the WTC Final will depend on the results of other teams. India will next play New Zealand in the third Test in Mumbai from November 1 and then travel to Australia to play 5 matches in the showpiece Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
Besides Australia and New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the other teams that could hamper India’s chances in the remainder of this cycle.
WTC 2023-25 POINTS TABLE
Pos. | Team | Mat. | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points | PCT |
1 | India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 98 | 62.82 |
2 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.5 |
3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
4 | New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 60 | 50.00 |
5 | South Africa | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 47.62 |
6 | England | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 93 | 43.06 |
7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 33.33 |
8 | Bangladesh | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 30.56 |
9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 18.52 |
How Many Defeats Can India afford to make to WTC finals
To put it simply and rather plainly – India cannot afford a single loss in their next 6 Test matches if they do not want to depend on other results. If India want to reach the WTC final in a commanding manner, the team has to win at least 5 Test matches and draw 1 to remain above 70 PCT. However, it is unlikely that India will be able to manage a 4-0 or a 5-0 series sweep against Australia, who are the defending World Test Champions.
In a more realistic scenario, India will need to win a minimum of 2 Test matches from here on to remain in contention for the final. However, with 2 wins and four draws – which will keep their PCT above 60, India will have to depend on other results.
Teams catching up with India with realistic chances to go to the finals
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are currently placed third in the WTC points table and are the nearest competitor to India and Australia. Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining – two against South Africa away and two against Australia later in 2025, and they have to win all their games to qualify for the final of the tournament.
Currently, placed third with a PCT of 55.56, Sri Lanka can finish with 108 points with four successive wins. That would elevate the Lankan Lions to a PCT of 69.23. In case Sri Lanka win all four, India will only be able to better them with at least 5 wins in 6 Test matches.
South Africa
South Africa are now the dark horses to reach the WTC Final, having won the first Test against Bangladesh. Should South Africa win the second Test in Bangladesh and complete a series sweep, they have a realistic chance of making it to the final, given they will play 4 Test matches at home – against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
With wins in all of these matches, South Africa can finish with a PCT of 69.44, leaving India with the challenge of not conceding another defeat and drawing only one game to secure a minimum of 71.05 PCT with five wins.
Australia
It is highly unlikely that India and Australia will make it to the WTC final together despite holding onto the top two spots currently. Australia can secure their berth with four wins from their remaining seven Tests – five at home against India and two against Sri Lanka. Former cricketer Aakash Chopra also spoke on the lines of concern for the Indian test team and its road to WTC finals
Aakash Chopra on India’s WTC final qualification chances after loss in IND vs NZ 2nd Test
Aakash Chopra reckons India have an arduous task ahead to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. He opined that winning the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy will be a tough proposition for the visitors.
India suffered a 113-run defeat in the second Test against New Zealand in Pune on Saturday, October 26. They are 2-0 down in the three-match series and might have to win the final Test and the upcoming five-match series in Australia to book a berth in their third consecutive WTC final.
In a video shared on his YouTube channel ‘Aakash Chopra’, the former India opener termed Rohit Sharma and Co.’s WTC qualification scenario a ‘herculean task’.
“The pressing question is what is the WTC qualification scenario because we were on a mission domination. We thought we would win all five (home Tests) and go ahead with 100 percent points. The scenario now is that you have to win four of the remaining six matches and draw one, and that is a herculean task,” he said .
“Believe it or not, I feel the upcoming BGT (Border-Gavaskar Trophy) is going to be very difficult. We have not lost for 10 years but winning this Border-Gavaskar Trophy will be extremely tough. So the qualification scenario is now looking a little dicey, especially when you see South Africa’s home matches. That is the big one,” Chopra added.
South Africa, who have already won the first Test in Bangladesh, have one more game against the Bangla Tigers and two Tests apiece against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home as their remaining fixtures in the current WTC cycle. They will seal their berth in the final if they win all their remaining five games, with the winner of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy potentially facing them in the summit clash.
The drawn game in the West Indies hurt us” – Aakash Chopra on where things went awry for India
In the same video, Aakash Chopra noted that the drawn second Test in the away tour of the West Indies compromised India’s chances.
“In this WTC cycle, the drawn game in the West Indies hurt us. You could have got 100 percent points there but you got only four points for that drawn game. So you got only 16 points (for the series) although there were 24 points to achieve. You lost points there,” he said.
The cricketer-turned-commentator added that the possibility of getting at most 33.33% points in the three-match series against New Zealand has hurt India badly.
“After that, 1-1 in South Africa, I thought that was a good result. When you play a five-match series against England, even if you lose one Test, you move ahead with 80 percent points. Of course, you lose points for slow over rate as well. Here you thought you would win all three matches and get 100 percent points, and you would be through but that’s not the case. Now you have only 33% points to gain because New Zealand have already won two matches,” Chopra observed.
With 62.82 percent points, India are still perched atop the WTC points table. However, they are now only 0.32 percent points ahead of Australia, with the Aussies, South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand apart from the two-time runners-up still in contention for the two available spots for the WTC final.