India are set to clash against Australia in the first semi final of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on Tuesday, March 4. India head into the Champions Trophy knockout game as favourites, backed by form and familiar conditions in Dubai. But despite missing key players, Australia remain a formidable knockout force, ready to challenge once again.
This marks their first ICC knockout battle since Australia’s dominating victory in the 2023 World Cup final. Looking at the records, Australia have dominated ICC events throughout, and India will be eager to change that narrative. In knockout matches since 2010, India have beaten Australia just once in four clashes. As for the ongoing tournament, India have been consistent in maintaining form, topping their group with three straight wins. With both teams eyeing a win in the do-or-die clash, one could expect a thrilling contest between the renowned rivals.
IND vs AUS : Previous Performances
Both India and Australia have reached the semi-final unbeaten in the group stages of the Champions Trophy. India outclassed Bangladesh, Pakistan, and New Zealand on sluggish pitches in Dubai, while Australia’s only outright win came against England, as their matches against South Africa and Afghanistan were washed out. Against Afghanistan, Australia were cruising towards victory before rain played spoilsport in Lahore.
India once again look like a well-oiled machine. Their captain, Rohit Sharma, has continued to play fearless cricket at the top, while vice-captain Shubman Gill has looked more fluent than ever in his one-day career.
Virat Kohli silenced doubters with a century against Pakistan, while the middle order has looked solid, with an in-form Shreyas Iyer and an Axar Patel who has given the team management confidence that he is more than just a floater. KL Rahul at No. 6 and Hardik Pandya at No. 7 have chipped in with crucial knocks, while India’s batting firepower extends to Ravindra Jadeja at No. 8.
There were concerns about the absence of the injured Jasprit Bumrah, but India have seen Mohammed Shami arrive at just the right time. They have also relied on spin to strangle opponents in the middle overs, making the most of conditions in Dubai.
And in their final Group A game against New Zealand, India unleashed Varun Chakravarthy. The mystery spinner, a late addition to the Champions Trophy squad, ran through the Black Caps’ batting lineup, taking a five-wicket haul in his first game of the tournament on Sunday. India went in with a spin-heavy approach, and their ‘informed gamble’ paid off.
IND vs AUS : Head to Head
India and Australia have met 18 times in major white-ball tournaments, with Australia holding the edge, having won 10 of those encounters. In knockout matches of the Champions Trophy and the World Cups, India and Australia are evenly matched, with three wins each in six meetings.
However, India have lost three of their last four knockout encounters against their arch-rivals, with their last victory in a major tournament’s business end coming in the 2011 World Cup quarter-final.
| Matches Played | 151 |
| Won by India | 57 |
| Won by Australia | 84 |
| Tied | 00 |
| No Result | 10 |
| First-ever Fixture | 06 Dec, 1980 |
| Most-recent Fixture | 19 Nov, 2023 |
IND vs AUS : Pitch Report
The Dubai International Stadium is expected to favour the spinners. The batters will to have to pace the innings in the beginning as batting becomes more challenging as the game goes on. The team winning the toss might opt to bowl first. The India vs New Zealand match was played on the same pitch used for India’s game against Bangladesh, but the semi-final is reportedly set to be played on a fresh surface. Pitches in Dubai have been slow due to extensive use before the Champions Trophy.
Expect another sluggish wicket, where a score of 260 could prove challenging for the chasing side. Spin has played a crucial role in Dubai, with teams batting first handling the spin threat better as conditions deteriorate. With no dew expected in the early evening, chasing sides have struggled against spin in the middle overs.
Winning the toss and opting to bat first appears to be the way to go. As the saying goes, there’s nothing like having runs on the board in a big match.
The pitch for this semi-final is the same one on which India played Pakistan on February 23. It played fairly similarly to the one on which India have played their other two games, against Bangladesh and New Zealand, with one unifying theme. Across the three matches, spinners have averaged 42.22 in the first innings while going at 4.81 runs per over. In the second, they have averaged 24.76 and gone at 4.18.
The pitches in Dubai have shown a clear tendency to slow down over 100 overs, and this, along with dew not being much of an issue at this time of year, may persuade the captain winning the toss to bat first. A clear, sunny day is expected in Dubai with a maximum temperature of 29 degrees Celsius.
India have lost 13 tosses in a row but Rohit Sharma is unlikely to be too worried for his continued lack of luck with the coin. The Indian team is well familiar with the conditions and are well prepared to set or chase the target. It will be a tricky call for Steve Smith if he wins the toss.
IND vs AUS : Big Picture : Australia have denied India before
Cricket is full of lessons, and if there’s one thing we’ve collectively learned over the years, it’s to never discount an Australian side in a major International Cricket Council (ICC) tournament-regardless of recent results, match-ups, or conditions. Australia have consistently shown the ability to defy the odds, spring surprises, and thrive in unfamiliar conditions.
Take the 2023 World Cup, for example. In the lead-up to the marquee event in India, Australia had lost five of their last six games. They then began the tournament with two consecutive defeats. Yet, on 19 November 2023, they silenced the home crowd at the world’s biggest stadium, defeating the host nation to claim the biggest prize in world cricket.
“[T]here’s nothing more satisfying than hearing a big crowd go silent.”
Pat Cummins won’t be in Dubai on Tuesday, but the words he spoke on November 18, 2023, will be. The players may not themselves be thinking about them, but viewers around the world quite likely will – if not about the words themselves, certainly about the broader theme they represent.
Since winning their quarter-final game at the 2011 World Cup, India have met Australia four times in ICC ODI tournaments, winning twice and losing twice. The two wins came in round-robin matches at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, and the defeats in the 2015 semi-finals and the 2023 final.
Many months have passed since November 19, 2023, and Tuesday’s Champions Trophy semi-final will pit a different India against a vastly different Australia, but the truth of that momentous day will hold just as good.
In that World Cup, India assembled a team for the ages and plowed through opposition after opposition like a battering ram; then they ran into an Australia side that was very, very good, though perhaps not as good as India, but certainly good enough to beat them in a one-off contest. If ever there was a cricketing parallel to Maracana 1950, this was it.
Now, for the first time since that final, India and Australia will meet in a one-day international-this time, in the semi-final of another major ICC event, the Champions Trophy. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Aussies. They are missing their entire world-class pace attack due to injuries and availability concerns, their recent form leading up to the tournament has been far from ideal, and they will be playing in Dubai-a venue that may not favour them. Yet, despite all this, few pundits are willing to write them off.
The gap between the two teams in this tournament is wider, with Australia missing their entire first-choice pace attack, and the conditions in Dubai only widen this gap. These gaps, however, matter less in one-off contests than over a series or a league, and there is enough quality in Australia’s line-up to make light of them, particularly in the game-changing potential of Travis Head at the top of the order (do India ever need reminding of what he can do?), the quality running through their middle order, and the legspin of Adam Zampa.
For India, meanwhile, questions that simmered unnoticed during the group stage now gain greater urgency. Virat Kohli has just played his 300th ODI; how many more will there be And what of Rohit Sharma And Ravindra Jadeja These three retired from the shortest format after India’s T20 World Cup victory last year; how much longer will they go on in ODIs Do they still have 2027 in their sights, or could this Champions Trophy be it
Whenever they go, they would desperately want another ODI trophy to take with them. All three won the 2013 Champions Trophy, and Kohli has a World Cup medal from 2011, but the current generation that they’ve done so much to nurture may well be India’s best-ever in ODIs. As of now, they don’t have the silverware to show for it. Australia have denied them before. Australia stand in their way once again.
IND vs AUS : Players In the spotlight: Rohit Sharma and Glenn Maxwell
Just under a month ago, at a time when questions about his international future swirled furiously around him, Rohit Sharma scored a breathtaking hundred against England that showed he remains among the world’s most dangerous ODI openers. He got off to starts in all three of India’s group games, but his highest score of this Champions Trophy, at this point, is 41. India would be thrilled if he could better that in this semi-final.
Of all batters to have scored at least 200 ODI runs against spin since the start of 2022, Glenn Maxwell (141.49) has the best strike rate. Of the top 12 batters in that list, however, Maxwell (37.81) is the only one to average under 40 against spin. He can take spinners apart like no one else, but he also gives them a chance.
The yin and yang of Maxwell’s game, then, may go on to have an outsize influence on a contest against an India side that will certainly have three top-class spinners and potentially even four. Maxwell’s offspin could be just as crucial to Australia’s hopes; his dismissal of Rohit was one of the foremost match-turning moments of the 2023 World Cup final.
IND vs AUS : Vital Stats that matters
- Since the start of 2010, India have positive win-loss records against all their ODI opponents other than Australia, against whom they are dead even: 23 wins and 23 defeats.
- India have won two and lost one of their four Champions Trophy meetings with Australia. They haven’t met each other in the tournament since a rain-affected no-result at Centurion in 2009.
- Beginning with that Centurion game, Australia have had seven result matches in the Champions Trophy, and six that were either washed out without a result or abandoned without a toss.
- India have lost their last 13 tosses in a row, with Rohit captaining them in ten of those games, and KL Rahul in three.
- Maxwell needs 17 runs to get to the 4000 mark in ODIs, while Rahul is 33 away from 3000.
- Between them, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis and Spencer Johnson – Australia’s three main seamers in this tournament – have played just two ODIs against India.
- Australia are far ahead in ODIs 84-57 and in the ICC ODI competitions, they lead 10-7 but since 2020, it has been even 7-7.
- India’s only defeat at CWC 2023 came in that one game in which their spinners failed to take a single wicket (Kuldeep and Jadeja returned 0/99 in 20 overs between them).
- Rohit is the only player with 1000-plus runs in Overs 1-10 in ODIs since 2023. Of the 100 players who have scored at least 100 runs in this phase in ODIs since 2023, only Travis Head has a superior strike-rate (130.48).
IND vs AUS : Team News for India and Australia
India :
Four spinners or three? And if three, which three? These are the big questions India will wrestle with following Varun Chakravarthy’s five-wicket haul against New Zealand on Sunday. The pitch they play on will likely determine the answers – the semi-final strip is the same one that was used for the India-Pakistan game on February 23.
There is unlikely to be any change in the Indian XI, although Rohit refused to confirm if he will retain the fourth spinner in Varun Chakravarthy. A lot will depend on the nature of the pitch for the game. There is a temptation to go with him, he said and most likely he will. There is an unlikely possibility of Arshdeep Singh coming in place of Mohammed Shami, who has not exactly fired so far in the Champions Trophy.
India Probable XI: Rohit Sharma (capt) , Shubman Gill (vc), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Axar Patel, KL Rahul(wk.), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Varun Chakravarthy
Australia :
With Matthew Short ruled out, there could be a like-for-like replacement in Jake Fraser-McGurk if Australia are looking to replace him at the top-order but they would still miss Short’s off-spin if required. And conditions in Dubai could have them thinking about Cooper Connolly as well, with Tanveer Sangha too having an outside chance at the cost of a pacer if the conditions dictate so.
Australia have brought Cooper Connolly into their squad in place of the injured Matt Short, and it seems likely that the left-arm spin-bowling allrounder will slot in immediately, given the likely conditions in Dubai, and the fact that Australia have lost not just an opener in Short but also an offspinner who went 7-0-21-0 in their last match.
If Connolly plays, however, Australia will have to decide who opens alongside Head. Josh Inglis seems the likely option; he opened throughout Australia’s three-match home ODI series against West Indies last year, scoring 65, 9 and 35*. There is also the chance that Australia could pick a second frontline spinner in Tanveer Sangha, if the look of the pitch persuades them to do so.
Australia Probable XI: Travis Head, Cooper Connelly, Steve Smith(capt), Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis(wk.), Alex Carey, Glenn Maxwell, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Adam Zampa, Spencer Johnson
IND vs AUS Fantasy XI : Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Varun Chakravarthy, Travis Head, Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Adam Zampa, Alex Carey
IND vs AUS : Key Match Ups to Watch
Steve Smith vs Rohit Sharma: When the margin is expected to be fine, the tactical battle could make all the difference. Rohit Sharma has been flawless so far, but Steve Smith thrives on challenges. As one of the shrewdest captains in the game, Smith will be eager to prove a point, likely having done extensive homework. Rohit lost the battle to Pat Cummins 14 months ago. Can he turn the tables on Tuesday
Travis Head vs Varun Chakravarthy: Is the mystery spinner India’s X-factor, equivalent to Jasprit Bumrah Indian legends Sunil Gavaskar and Ravi Shastri have backed Varun to cure the ‘Head-ache’ that haunted India in the ODI World Cup final and the World Test Championship final in 2023. Former off-spinner R Ashwin has suggested handing Varun the new ball to dismiss Head early. If Head survives 20 overs, India could be in for another tough outing.
Rohit Sharma vs Spencer Johnson: Johnson is no Mitchell Starc, but his ability to bring the ball into right-handers with late swing makes him a threat. New Zealand’s bowlers found swing in Dubai on Sunday, and Johnson will hope to exploit similar conditions. Rohit has improved against left-arm pacers recently, and if he stays in for 20 overs, it could spell doom for Australia.
Shreyas Iyer vs Adam Zampa: After the 2023 World Cup, Steve Smith revealed that Australia had specific plans for Shreyas, one of the best players of spin. Australia would have prepared extensively to counter his middle-over onslaught. Can Adam Zampa and Co. neutralise Shreyas before he takes control
Hardik Pandya vs Nathan Ellis: Ellis is a deceptive bowler known for his variations in the death overs. He thrives on sluggish pitches, like the one expected in Dubai. His effectiveness was evident against England, where he conceded under 55 runs in 10 overs despite a match aggregate of 707 runs on a flat Lahore pitch. If Ellis executes his slower deliveries well, he could curb Hardik’s late-innings fireworks.
IND vs AUS : Probable Best Performers
Probable Best Batter: Travis Head
Travis Head has been a batter to look out for in ODIs, showcasing impeccable adaptability and aggression. His ability to guide the innings and bring momentum when needed makes him a key threat against India. With an enviable record against the Men in Blue, including his 2023 ODI World Cup final heroics, Head is the biggest X-factor, likely to give Australia an upper hand. His recent form and dominance against top bowling attacks make him a probable best batter against India.
Probable Best Bowler: Varun Chakravarthy
Varun Chakravarthy’s exciting Champions Trophy debut saw him claim a match-winning five wickets for 42 runs against New Zealand, propelling India to a 44-run victory and securing their top spot in Group A. The performance was the best by an Indian debutant in the tournament, showing his potential as a key spin bowler in the high-stakes semi-final against Australia.
IND vs AUS : Match Prediction
India enter the semi-final as favourites with a significant advantage because of the conditions and firepower. If they bat first and post 270, Australia will struggle against India’s spin attack. However, if Australia manage to set a target beyond 270, Steve Smith will fancy his team’s chances. A thrilling contest awaits! Australia must be cautious not to overextend themselves, which could allow India’s spinners to run through their line-up.
Scenario 1:
- India win the toss and opt to bowl first
- PP score: 45-50
- AUS: 255-260
- India win the match
Scenario 2:
- Australia win the toss and opt to bowl first
- PP score: 50-55
- IND: 260-265
- Australia win the match