Hashmatullah Shahidi’s Afghanistan defeated Jos Buttler-led England cricket team in match 8 of the ongoing edition of the ICC Champions Trophy which was being played at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore, on February 26 (Wednesday). As this was a do-or-die game for both teams, this victory of the Afghanistan side eliminated the Three Lions from the mega tournament. However, there are still three teams running to seal the remaining two spots in the semi-finals.
The washed-out match between Australia and South Africa on Tuesday kept both England and Afghanistan in contention for the final spots. The latter two teams played a last over thriller on Wednesday, which saw the debutant Afghanistan knock England out and keeping themselves in race for the semifinals.
With two losses, England have been knocked out of the semifinal race. They play South Africa in their final group game. Although it doesn’t hold any significance for England, but for South Africa it’s a must-win encounter.
With the Champions Trophy 2025 group stage reaching its climax, Group B has erupted into a three-way tussle for semifinal qualification between Australia, South Africa, and Afghanistan. Afghanistan having defeated England entangled themselves in the complexities of the qualification scenario.
As the final round of matches looms, the permutations are fraught with tension, net run rate (NRR) complexities, and the ever-looming threat of rain, leaving fans and teams alike clinging to calculators and weather apps.
Scenarios for South Africa, Australia & Afghanistan to qualify for Semis
South Africa and Australia currently sit atop Group B with three points each, separated only by the Proteas’ commanding net run rate (+2.140 vs. Australia’s +0.475). Afghanistan, with two points from their win over England, remain in contention but faces a must-win clash against Australia. England, winless and rooted to the bottom, are already eliminated.
South Africa :
As for South Africa, they will reach the semi-final, if they win or draw their next game. They are currently on top of the points table as they have a really great net run rate. However, if they lose their game against England, they just need to hope that their loss doesn’t come by a big margin and the AUS vs AFG clash has a result.
South Africa has an easier path than Australia to qualify. If Australia wins against Afghanistan, the Proteas will qualify before playing their last match. If Afghanistan wins, South Africa will have to either win their last game against England or ensure that if they lose, they do not lose by a huge margin. In that case, the Proteas will edge past Australia on net run rate.
Australia :
For Australia to qualify, they just need to win their last match against Afghanistan, which will secure their place in the final four. If they fail to do so, they will have to hope England beat the Proteas by a big margin to push South Africa’s net run rate below Australia’s. In that case, Australia will advance at the expense of South Africa.
With three points from two games, Australia need to win against Afghanistan to make it to the semifinals. A slip-up will cost them heavily because then they would want South Africa to lose its match by a big margin against England so that the Proteas’ net run rate drops below them.
Scenario : Australia Defeats Afghanistan
If Australia triumphs over Afghanistan in their final group game on February 28, they will finish with five points, securing their semifinal berth. South Africa, with three points already, would join them automatically if they avoid a catastrophic loss to England. However, even a narrow South African defeat could see them progress due to their superior NRR cushion. For Afghanistan, an Australian victory would spell elimination, regardless of their NRR (-0.990), which lags far behind their rivals.
Afghanistan :
With two points from two games, Afghanistan are still in the race for semifinals. They play Australia next and a win will take them to four points, which will elevate them to the top two and also to the last four. Australia have three points from two games after their washout against South Africa. A loss for Afghanistan will mean they are out of the competition.
Scenario : Afghanistan Stuns Australia
A historic Afghan win would catapult them to four points, leapfrogging Australia (stuck at three) and turning the heat on South Africa. In this case, Afghanistan would qualify outright, leaving Australia’s fate dependent on South Africa’s result against England. If South Africa loses to England, the Aussies could still advance only if their NRR (+0.475) stays above the Proteas’. Given South Africa’s hefty NRR buffer, this would require an improbably heavy defeat for the Proteas.
The Rain wildcard and the Net Run Rate Chaos
If both Australia vs. Afghanistan and South Africa vs. England are washed out, each team would earn one point.In this scenario, South Africa and Australia would qualify as the top two, with Afghanistan’s three points insufficient to bridge the NRR gap. Rain, thus, would brutally end Afghanistan’s dream while offering Australia and South Africa a stress-free passage.
NRR looms large, particularly for Australia and South Africa. South Africa’s colossal +2.140 grants them near immunity unless they suffer a record thrashing by England.
Australia’s +0.475, while healthier than Afghanistan’s -0.990, remains vulnerable if they lose to Afghanistan and South Africa stumble marginally. Afghanistan’s only hope rests on a win so emphatic that it offsets their poor NRR, a Herculean task against Australia’s attack.
So the above scenarios confirms that Group B scenario due to the rain washout between South Africa and Australia had spiced up. Meanwhile on the other hand in Group A The Indian cricket team and New Zealand have already sealed their spot in the semi-final after picking up two consecutive victories over Bangladesh and Pakistan. Both teams will face each other in their final group game on March 2 in Dubai. However, it will not have much effect on the scenario apart from their standings in the group.