ICC Champions Trophy 2025 : Rain Threatens High-Stakes Afghanistan vs Australia Contest

The pitch at Gaddafi Stadium is known for being batting-friendly, as evident from the previous matches at this venue. Both the two games hosted here posted over 300 and 350 runs. Hence, a high-scoring contest is likely once again. While pacers may find some assistance early on with the new ball, conditions will generally favour batters throughout the game. Evidently, the surface becomes better for batting in the second innings, making it a challenging day ahead for the bowlers.

Lahore has hosted 10 ODIs since 2022, with chasing teams winning five of them. The average first-innings score in this period stands at 300. In this tournament, Australia made light work of England’s 351 in a commanding chase, while Afghanistan successfully defended 325 in a tense finish. There is a forecast for light rain, but conditions are expected to improve in the second half, when the match is scheduled.

The weather report is a big worry ahead of the AFG vs AUS game. Rain could play spoilsport throughout the game. The weather forecast has predicted a rainy day in Lahore on the match day. Even if the entire game does not get washed out, the upcoming game will likely lose a good number of overs.

As far as the pitch is concerned, it is expected to favor the batsmen once again. Both the games played at this venue earlier in the tournament were high-scoring games and the upcoming game also promises to be a run-fest.

Both teams are now well acquainted with the conditions in Lahore, which has been considerably batting-friendly. While it’s been mostly tough going for pace bowlers, spinners have had an impact despite minimal turn off the surface. After the washout between Australia and South Africa, rain again threatens to spoil the party although the forecast is better from the late afternoon onwards. But with plenty of rain cascading on the ground in the lead-up, drainage could also be an issue.

AFG vs AUS : Big Picture : Afghanistan and Australia in sudden-death contest

Much like Afghanistan’s match against England, the political spectre over this clash is hard to put aside. Matches are rare between the two countries, with Australia – like England – taking a human rights stance and pledging to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power in Afghanistan.

Cricket Australia publicly demonstrated its commitment to the cause last month by hosting a T20 match featuring an Afghanistan women’s XI in Melbourne, bringing the issue firmly back under the spotlight. But, underlining the complexities of the issue, Australia do play Afghanistan at ICC events – which has led to some criticism – and this intriguing, budding rivalry will resume in Lahore with much at stake.

Given the tournament’s sharp format, it’s basically sudden death, a virtual quarter-final, after Afghanistan knocked out England again from an ICC event. But Afghanistan will be eliminated with a loss, while Australia also must win, with a defeat meaning they will have to rely on South Africa being absolutely pummeled by a beleaguered England, who have nothing to play for. A washout will see Australia through to the semi-final.

Afghanistan had Australia on the ropes before Glenn Maxwell’s once-in-a-lifetime double hundred snatched victory from the brink of humiliation in Mumbai. Months later in Kingstown, at the T20 World Cup, Afghanistan finally had their moment, pulling off an upset that pointed to their growing stature in the global game. Now the two teams meet again in Lahore, this time with a Champions Trophy semifinal at stake.

The equation is simple: Australia qualify if they win or if rain washes out the game. Afghanistan go through if they win. In case of a washout, Afghanistan would go to 3 points and will need England to beat South Africa by a big margin to make it.

This is not the first time the two teams have met in a high-stakes contest at a world event. At the 2022 T20 World Cup, Australia emerged with a slim six-run victory in Adelaide that was ultimately not the net-run-rate boost they needed as they crashed out early on home soil.

Glenn Maxwell, of course, changed the course of the 2023 World Cup with a remarkable double-century that still beggars belief. But Afghanistan had some measure of revenge at last year’s T20 World Cup as they overcame a brief Maxwell onslaught with a 21-run victory that sealed their place in the semi-finals.

And, once again, a semi-final spot is up for grabs. The form line is a little hard to read with both teams having tight wins over a wheezing England. Afghanistan bounced back strongly after a disastrous opening against South Africa while Australia’s momentum came to a halt after their clash against South Africa was washed out.

Even though they are considerably weakened – against England they fielded their least experienced attack at an ICC ODI event since 1983 – Australia mustered up their big-game pedigree under pressure to make a statement. Their batting line-up still contains plenty of firepower with Josh Inglis emerging as a genuine star batter across formats. It is little wonder that some believe he’s Australia’s next captain.

Afghanistan enter this contest riding a high, their confidence bolstered by a dramatic victory over England at this very ground. Ibrahim Zadran’s record-breaking 177 and Azmatullah Omarzai’s all-round brilliance kept their semifinal hopes alive, proving yet again that they are no longer content with being cricket’s underdog story

. The energy from that performance, the familiarity of conditions in Lahore and the ‘infectious self belief’ that their coach Jonathan Trott spoke about, make this a seminal moment. If there was ever a time to play Australia, it is now.

A backs-against-the-wall triumph is in play, but Australia will have to firstly get past rising Afghanistan in a game that feels evenly poised. Afghanistan will lean on their spin-heavy attack, but Australia do have numerous players adept against the turning ball – led by Inglis. Australia’s depleted pace stocks makes that department more equally matched than previous encounters, while an in-form Ibrahim Zadran – coming off a Champions Trophy-best score of 177 – ensures he can go toe-to-toe with his counterparts.

For Australia, the equation is different. They have looked every bit the dominant force, even without the likes of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Marsh and Marcus Stoinis. Their chase of 352 against England underscored their batting depth and ability to absorb pressure on the ICC stage, but that was a week ago. Their last match was washed out, leaving them removed from the rhythm of the tournament while battle-hardened Afghanistan have clocked overs on the field.

The prospect of more bad weather in Lahore could also play a factor in a clash that is set to be just as compelling as the recent matches between these teams.

AFG vs AUS : Players In the spotlight: Azmatullah Omarzai and Glenn Maxwell

While Afghanistan’s slew of quality spinners deservedly attracts plenty of attention, seam bowling allrounder Azmatullah Omarzai stole the show against England with the maiden five-wicket haul of his professional career. He was particularly superb at the death with three wickets when the game was on a knife’s edge.

Omarzai’s emergence has helped Afghanistan better balance their attack and they are no longer merely reliant on their spinners for success. He’ll need to back up that performance against a formidable Australia batting order and his canny, skiddy bowling will need to be on point against big-hitting openers Travis Head and Matthew Short. If he can strike early, then Afghanistan will be right in the hunt.

There isn’t much cricket history between the countries, but Glenn Maxwell is probably the first name that springs to mind with this match-up. In the last ODI between the teams, a hobbling Maxwell produced one of the great innings to rescue Australia from the brink at the 2023 World Cup and crush Afghanistan.

Maxwell enters this match in great form having put the finishing touches against England after a brilliant end to the BBL season. It will be interesting to see if his presence at the crease spooks Afghanistan, who are adamant they haven’t devoted too much of their plans on him.

AFG vs AUS : Vital Stats that matters

• Maxwell is 17 away from 4000 ODI runs. His strike rate of 126.68 is the best in ODI history (minimum of 500 balls faced).
• Rashid is one wicket away from becoming the first Afghanistan bowler to claim 200 ODI wickets. His bowling average of 20.4 is the ninth-best in ODI history (minimum of 1000 balls).
• Rahmat Shah needs 37 runs to become the first Afghanistan batter to reach 4000 ODI runs.
• Australia have won all their four ODIs against Afghanistan.
• Afghanistan have never beaten Australia in an ODI
• Captains have opted to bat first in 3 out of the last 5 ODIs at the Gaddafi Stadium

AFG vs AUS : Team News for Australia and Afghanistan

Afghanistan :

They are expected to field an unchanged side following their memorable win over England. After such a momentous victory, Afghanistan are likely to go unchanged for the third straight game and back their spin strength in subcontinental conditions. The trio of Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad will present considerable challenges for the Australians.

Afghanistan Probable Playing XI : Rahmanullah Gurbaz(w), Ibrahim Zadran, Sediqullah Atal, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi(c), Azmatullah Omarzai, Mohammad Nabi, Gulbadin Naib, Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, Fazalhaq Farooqi

Australia :

The players will be well-rested after a week-long break. Australia are likely to retain their four frontline bowling combination, with Labuschagne, Matthew Short and Glenn Maxwell sharing the remaining overs. Due to the inclement conditions, team lists weren’t even announced for the Australia-South Africa clash. It makes predicting Australia’s line-up somewhat difficult. The team is mostly settled, but they might be tempted to tweak their bowling attack that leaked 351 runs against England.

Left-arm quick Spencer Johnson might be in the selection gun after he was overlooked for the death overs against England. But his pace and bounce could be a weapon against Afghanistan’s top order. Australia, who trained indoors on match eve, will also consider bowling allrounder Sean Abbott, who offers a point of difference and strengthens the batting, and leg spinner Tanveer Sangha, given Marnus Labuschagne’s part-time legspin played a role against England.

Australia Probable Playing XI : Matthew Short, Travis Head, Steven Smith(c), Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis(w), Alex Carey, Glenn Maxwell, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Adam Zampa, Spencer Johnson

AFG vs AUS Fantasy XI : Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Josh Inglis, Travis Head (c), Steve Smith, Ibrahim Zadran, Marnus Labuschagne, Glenn Maxwell (vc), Azmatullah Omarzai, Matthew Short, Adam Zampa, Rashid Khan

AFG vs AUS : Probable Best Performers in the match

Probable Best Batter: Ibrahim Zadran

Ibrahim Zadran played a blinder of a knock in the previous game against England. His 177 off 146 balls earned him massive praise from experts and fans. Ibrahim Zadran will want to continue from where he left off on Wednesday. If he gets himself set at the crease, the right-handed batter could score another big hundred.

Probable Best Bowler: Adam Zampa

Adam Zampa picked up two wickets against England but conceded 64 runs in his 10 overs. He is the most experienced bowler in this Australian lineup, and he would have a crucial role to play through the middle overs. If he gets among the wickets, it will put the brakes on Afghanistan’s scoring rate

AFG vs AUS : Match Prediction for Australia and Afghanistan

Case 1: If Australia Bats First

Australia’s batting unit, led by Matthew Short and Travis Head promises firepower at the top given that they chased a mammoth 352 set by England. Hence, Josh Inglis, the previous match hero’s aggressive strokeplay, complemented by Alex Carey can ensure a solid middle-order foundation.

In the last outing, Glenn Maxwell’s quickfire 32 off 15 also highlighted the team’s finishing strength. Hence, if Australia is put to bat first at Gaddafi, the Men in Yellow can put on a dominating show with the bat.

Case 2: If Afghanistan Bats First

Afghanistan’s batting lineup, bolstered by Ibrahim Zadran and Rahmanullah Gurbaz at the top, will aim to set a strong foundation against Australia’s pace attack. Zadran, fresh off a record-breaking 177 against England, will be key, while Gurbaz’s aggressive approach can put the opposition under early pressure.

Skipper Hashmatullah Shahidi and Rahmat Shah provide stability in the middle order, with all-rounders Azmatullah Omarzai and Mohammad Nabi offering firepower in the latter stages. However, facing Australia’s formidable attack, Afghanistan’s batters must guard against early wickets and capitalize on Rashid Khan and Gulbadin Naib’s finishing abilities to post a competitive total.

Scenario 1

• Afghanistan win the toss and opt to bat first
• Powerplay: 50-60
• AFG: 320-330
• Australia win the match

Scenario 2   

• Australia win the toss and opt to bat first
• Powerplay: 50-60
• AUS: 350-360
• Australia win the match

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